A Difficult Quarter for the King of Crypto
The first quarter of 2026 will go down in history — but not for the right reasons. For the first time in six years, Bitcoin’s hashrate — the metric measuring the computing power deployed to secure the network — recorded a decline over an entire quarter. The last time such a pullback occurred, the world knew nothing of NFTs or dog-themed meme coins. Those were simpler times.
Behind this trend lies a fundamental explanation: miners are migrating en masse toward artificial intelligence. Data centers capable of running GPUs at full capacity prove just as useful for training language models as for mining BTC — and apparently more profitable in the current context. Bitcoin is thus losing soldiers to ChatGPT and its cousins.
Iran Enters the Equation
As if internal dynamics weren’t enough, markets had to contend with a surprise guest this weekend: the specter of an armed conflict involving Iran. Reports of a possible American ground operation triggered a bitcoin plunge, before Donald Trump’s statements evoking “serious discussions with the new regime” restored some color to prices.
Analysts remain cautious nonetheless. Buyer conviction remains fragile, particularly as significant U.S. economic data releases approach. Bitcoin ended the month roughly where it started — a deceptive performance that masks considerable volatility. Add to this net outflows from spot bitcoin ETFs, a sign that institutional investors aren’t rushing to buy either.
On the macroeconomic front, five-year U.S. Treasury yields rose by approximately 4%, mechanically weighing on risky assets like bitcoin. When “risk-free” money yields more, the appetite for speculation cools.
Nearly Half of BTC in Negative Territory
One of the most striking statistics of this month-end is this: nearly half of all bitcoins in circulation currently find themselves below their acquisition price. In other words, millions of holders are technically “in the red.” Worse still, long-term investors — those typically considered the steadiest hands in the market — have begun selling at a loss.
This type of behavior is often interpreted as a capitulation signal, meaning the moment when even the most convinced throw in the towel. Some on-chain analysis models suggest bitcoin could still test a floor between $40,000 and $50,000 before finding sustainable upward momentum. Others believe the recent rebound to $67,000 isn’t enough to invalidate the current downtrend.
Crypto-Native Companies Play Their Own Tune
Meanwhile, in the world of companies accumulating crypto on their balance sheets, the show continues. American Bitcoin — a company linked to the Trump family — crossed the 7,000 BTC threshold, a symbolic milestone. Less symbolic: its stock price continued sliding toward penny stock territory, those securities trading below a dollar. The paradox is delicious: the more bitcoins the company accumulates, the more its stock loses value on the market. Yet the “satoshis per share” metric has more than doubled since the IPO. Finance, truly, is not lacking in irony.
On the Ethereum side, BitMine — a firm co-founded by analyst Tom Lee — continued building its ETH reserves, positioning itself as one of the largest institutional holders of the market’s second cryptocurrency. Strategy, meanwhile, paused its weekly bitcoin purchases. Even the most ardent accumulators sometimes need to catch their breath.
Finally, in South Korea, the operator of the Upbit platform published annual results in decline: revenues fell 10% to just over $1 billion in 2025, reflecting a broader slowdown in crypto trading volumes.
Perspective
The overall picture of this first quarter of 2026 is that of a market searching for direction, tossed about by macroeconomic pressures, geopolitical tensions, and structural repositioning of industry players. The migration of miners to AI is not just a minor news item: it reflects a profound evolution in the industry, where bitcoin is no longer the only technological eldorado.
The question of the “bottom” remains open. Models diverge, signals are contradictory, and international developments can shuffle the deck at any moment. What we know with certainty is that markets are going through a digestion phase — and that patience, in this universe, remains probably the scarcest resource.
